Track Record
Real performance data. Every signal tracked, every outcome recorded. No cherry-picking — wins and losses, fully transparent.
Why Win Rate Doesn't Tell the Full Story
In options trading, win rate alone is misleading. What matters is how much you make when you're right versus how much you lose when you're wrong — the risk/reward asymmetry.
Our Grade A signals win 41.9% of the time. Average winners return +81.7% while average losses are -66.1%. Winners are 1.2x the size of losers.
Options can lose most or all of their value when a trade doesn't work — that's expected and built into the math. This is why position sizing matters: never risk more than you can afford to lose on a single trade.
This is how institutional traders think — not "how often do I win" but "how much do I make when I'm right." Our grading system identifies the highest-conviction setups where the asymmetric payoff is in your favor.
Grade A signals win 41.9% vs 31.6% for Grade B — a 33% improvement that proves the system separates real institutional conviction from noise.
Performance by Grade
| Grade | Trades | Win Rate | Avg Winner | Avg Loser | Edge Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | 1,272 | 41.9% | +81.7% | -66.1% | 1.2x |
| B | 7,568 | 31.6% | +91.9% | -66.4% | 1.4x |
| C | 12,123 | 31.6% | +82.2% | -62.9% | 1.3x |
Edge Ratio = avg winner ÷ avg loser. A ratio above 1.0 means winners are larger than losers. Grade A requires a multi-factor conviction score ≥ 0.80, representing the top ~5% of detected institutional flow.
Performance by Days to Expiration
| DTE Range | Trades | Win Rate | Avg Winner | Avg Loser |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 DTE | 2,606 | 23.4% | +177.9% | -93.9% |
| 4-14 DTE | 5,737 | 25.3% | +136.1% | -80.7% |
| 15-45 DTE | 9,131 | 36.8% | +59.4% | -49.4% |
| 45+ DTE | 3,402 | 38.4% | +52.8% | -43.7% |
The 15-45 DTE sweet spot balances time value with directional conviction. Our system penalizes short-dated trades based on their historical win rate.
Monthly Results
| Month | Trades | Win Rate | Avg Winner | Avg Loser | Edge Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | 16,445 | 33.6% | +81.1% | -62.1% | 1.3x |
| Jan 2026 | 4,518 | 27.2% | +105.7% | -71.8% | 1.5x |
Data reflects closed positions only. Signals still open are not included in monthly totals. Edge Ratio = avg winner ÷ avg loser.
Top Grade A & B Performers
Our highest-conviction signals ranked by return. Only Grade A and B signals shown — these are the alerts delivered to subscribers.
| Symbol | Trade | Exp | Exit Date | Return | Premium | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Calls $190 | Feb 13 | Feb 09 | +866.4% | $329K | B |
| QQQ | Puts $625 | Feb 03 | Feb 02 | +674.7% | $100K | B |
| SPXW | Puts $6880 | Feb 05 | Feb 04 | +556.5% | $161K | B |
| MMM | Calls $160 | Feb 20 | Feb 09 | +477.9% | $128K | B |
| NDXP | Calls $25310 | Feb 04 | Feb 03 | +472.3% | $142K | B |
| SLV | Puts $97.50 | Feb 02 | Jan 27 | +467.0% | $265K | A |
| GLD | Calls $473 | Jan 28 | Jan 27 | +452.8% | $108K | B |
| AMZN | Puts $227.50 | Feb 20 | Feb 09 | +434.9% | $169K | B |
| TSLA | Puts $420 | Feb 04 | Feb 03 | +408.7% | $124K | B |
| AMD | Calls $205 | Feb 13 | Feb 09 | +385.3% | $104K | B |
Recent Signals — All Outcomes
| Symbol | Trade | Grade | Outcome | Return | Exit Reason | Exit Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Puts $255 | B | WIN | +33.9% | TARGET | Feb 13 |
| GOOG | Puts $310 | B | BIG_WIN | +55.9% | BIG_TARGET | Feb 13 |
| V | Puts $355 | C | BIG_WIN | +59.4% | BIG_TARGET | Feb 13 |
| SPX (3x) | Calls $6945 | B | LOSS | -33.5% | STOP | Feb 13 |
| SPX (2x) | Calls $6940 | C | LOSS | -32.2% | STOP | Feb 13 |
| SPX (2x) | Calls $6950 | B | LOSS | -32.7% | STOP | Feb 13 |
| GOOGL | Calls $315 | C | LOSS | -30.5% | STOP | Feb 13 |
| NVDA | Puts $190 | C | WIN | +32.7% | TARGET | Feb 13 |
| AVGO | Puts $350 | C | WIN | +33.1% | TARGET | Feb 13 |
| SPX | Calls $6955 | B | LOSS | -34.9% | STOP | Feb 13 |
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